Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 1.988594 2.084534 2.186676 2.304268 2.436900 2.583091 2.758185
2025-11-09 1.873537 1.995246 2.129689 2.291154 2.482597 2.706227 2.993577
2025-11-16 1.794084 1.931728 2.087788 2.281125 2.519326 2.810974 3.209261
2025-11-23 1.729753 1.878148 2.049825 2.267839 2.545084 2.898587 3.408992
2025-11-30 1.689966 1.849212 2.036947 2.281068 2.601376 3.027185 3.680464
2025-12-07 1.621642 1.781795 1.972522 2.223776 2.559285 3.016224 3.743642
2025-12-14 1.580671 1.745179 1.943443 2.208705 2.570564 3.078510 3.926951
2025-12-21 1.539990 1.706835 1.909854 2.184934 2.566913 3.117127 4.076497
2025-12-28 1.524674 1.698922 1.913806 2.210229 2.632570 3.264843 4.444452
2026-01-04 1.516075 1.698685 1.927041 2.248088 2.718488 3.454106 4.944141
2026-01-11 1.490627 1.675878 1.909555 2.242054 2.738122 3.536867 5.252939
2026-01-18 1.472628 1.661830 1.902776 2.250235 2.779365 3.660931 5.699117
2026-01-25 1.437411 1.625242 1.865640 2.214767 2.752322 3.664906 5.866815
2026-02-01 1.413139 1.602086 1.845585 2.202725 2.761239 3.735484 6.243856
2026-02-08 1.391445 1.581570 1.828233 2.193517 2.773654 3.813964 6.688224
2026-02-15 1.370003 1.560716 1.809596 2.181326 2.779934 3.881007 7.142003
2026-02-22 1.358296 1.552285 1.807540 2.193450 2.827471 4.038707 8.055399
2026-03-01 1.325272 1.514661 1.763914 2.140862 2.760468 3.945301 7.886351
2026-03-08 1.306683 1.495944 1.746136 2.127004 2.759993 3.996669 8.409621
2026-03-15 1.286284 1.474343 1.723724 2.105130 2.744028 4.011880 8.788733
2026-03-22 1.281528 1.473611 1.730492 2.128405 2.809658 4.223026 10.554594
2026-03-29 1.280535 1.477855 1.744307 2.163190 2.899159 4.512862 13.967747
2026-04-05 1.267203 1.464925 1.733115 2.157650 2.912782 4.614370 16.385185